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More poll woes for Sunak with warning that Tories are under threat of ‘extinction’

Posted on by Vaseline

Labor is on course for a majority of 262 seats in Britain’s upcoming general election, according to an analysis by pollster Survation.

The analysis and modeling based on more than 40,000 surveys shows that Labor is ahead with 456 seats, while the Tories are in first place with just 72 seats.

Meanwhile, a Savanta voting intentions poll also contained bad news for British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, with a warning that the Tories could face “electoral extinction”.

The Survation model puts the Liberal Democrats on 56 seats, the SNP on 37, while Reform UK is currently favorite on seven seats.

The analysis shows Plaid Cymru is on course for two seats and the Greens will control Brighton Pavilion.

The Survation study for campaign group Best For Britain used the multilevel with post-stratification (MRP) technique to model outcomes in constituencies.

Survation surveyed 42,269 people online or by telephone between May 31 and June 13.

It is the first MRP analysis since Nigel Farage returned to the political frontline.

In its interpretation of the findings, Survation said: “Since Farage’s announcement to take over the leadership of Reform UK, we have seen a rise in their vote share in the national polls, and now we see how this can result in seat gains.

“Unsurprisingly, the reforms are making significant gains in places where the Conservatives are losing the most, and are currently the leading party in terms of vote share of seven seats. The reforms are also currently outperforming the Conservatives with 59 seats.”

The Savanta survey for the Sunday Telegraph gave Labor a 25 point lead, with Sir Keir Starmer’s party on 46 percent, up two on last week, and the Tories on 21 percent, down four points.

It is the lowest share the Conservatives have had with the pollster under Sunak.

Chris Hopkins, director of political research at Savanta, said: “Our research suggests that this election could be nothing short of an electoral extinction event for the Conservative Party.

“Conservative candidates’ hopes are being shattered by poll after poll showing the Conservative Party is in increasing trouble – and we’re only halfway through the campaign.

“There is a real feeling that things could get worse for the Conservatives, and with postal votes about to fall through millions of letterboxes, time is already running out for Rishi Sunak.”

Reform UK was on 13 percent, up three points, the Liberal Democrats up two points on 11 percent, the Greens up one point on 5 percent and the SNP down one point on 2 percent.