Oil price falls to one-month low, drops over $2, driven by strong US dollar, hopes for Gaza ceasefire: Brent drops 2% to $82/barrel

Oil prices fell more than $2 on Friday to their lowest level since mid-June as investors eyed a possible ceasefire in Gaza, while a stronger dollar sent values ​​lower.

Brent crude prices fell $2.48, or 2.9%, to $82.63 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $2.69, or 3.3%, to $80.13.

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US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said a long-awaited ceasefire between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas is in sight.

“I think we are within the 10-yard line and moving toward the goal line to reach an agreement that will bring about a ceasefire, bring the hostages home and put us on a path to try to create lasting peace and stability,” Blinken said, using a football analogy.

The war in Gaza has led investors to price in a risk premium when trading oil, as global oil supplies are threatened by tensions.

If a ceasefire is reached, the Iran-backed Houthi rebels could reduce their attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea, as the group has declared the attacks as shows of support for Hamas.

“The geopolitical situation is starting to calm down a little bit, so that should work in our favor, after the ceasefire news,” said Tim Snyder, chief economist at Matador Economics.

The United Nations Supreme Court has ruled that Israel’s occupation of the Palestinian territories and its settlements is illegal and must be ended as soon as possible, raising hopes for an end to the conflict.

According to Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures Group, the US dollar index rose after stronger-than-expected US labor market and manufacturing data was released this week, putting pressure on oil prices.

A stronger US currency means that buyers holding other currencies have less demand for oil in dollars.

Chinese officials acknowledged that the extensive list of economic goals reiterated at the end of a Communist Party meeting this week contained “many complex contradictions,” suggesting that implementing the policy is a bumpy road.

Official data showed China’s economy grew 4.7% in the second quarter, raising concerns about oil demand.

Energy company Baker Hughes provided some support to prices by reporting that the number of oil rigs fell by one this week to 477, the lowest number since December 2021.

A global technical outage disrupted operations across multiple sectors. Airlines halted flights, some broadcasters were taken offline, and sectors such as banking and healthcare were hit by systemic problems.

Meanwhile, two large oil tankers were on fire after a collision near Singapore.

Singapore is Asia’s largest oil trading centre and the world’s largest bunkering port. The surrounding waters are vital trade routes between Asia and Europe and the Middle East, and are among the world’s busiest shipping routes.