Reliance Industries Stock: RIL Price Targets After Q1 Results Suggest Up To 22% Upside For Stocks

Reliance Jio IPO, refining and petchem upcycle in FY26-27 are key catalysts for the Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) stock going forward. The upcoming AGM and commencement of New Energy operations will be a key event to watch in the coming months, a few analysts said as they suggested up to 22 per cent rise in the most valued stock on Dalal Street after its June quarter results.

Post the Q1 earnings results, Nomura India cut its Ebitda estimates for RIL for FY25 and FY26 by 3 per cent and 2 per cent, respectively. That said, it reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating on RIL with a higher price target of Rs 3,600 while rolling forward its estimates to June 2026.

“RIL is our top pick in the sector. We note that the outlook remains optimistic across segments: Retail supported by store expansions, strong growth in digital/new commerce and operating leverage; and Jio’s tariff hike will lead to value creation and monetisation of investments, enabling improvement in FCF generation and return multiples; we note upside risks to our FY26F/FY27F ARPU growth estimates,” the report said.

Emkay Global has also cut Ebitda estimates for RIL for FY25 and FY26 by 2-3 per cent by lowering Retail & O2C revenues. The entire retail sector has seen weakness in discretionary categories, it said as it rolled forward its estimates to September 2025 and suggested a target of Rs 3,335 per share. Emkay has raised Jio’s EV/Ebitda multiple to 12 times from 11 times. Any positive development with regard to vertical monetisation and new energy are key triggers for RIL, it said.

Motilal Oswal Securities said it is bullish on RIL’s refining business as global capacity growth lags oil demand growth. In telecom, it models an ARPU CAGR of 12 per cent over FY24-26. It also sees the potential IPO for RJio to unlock appreciation for the telecom business.

“We also remain positive on the retail sector where we expect revenue/EBITDA growth of 19 per cent annually for FY24-26,” the company said, suggesting a target price of Rs 3,435 crore for RIL.

RIL’s rollout of New Energy along with conventional businesses will usher in the next phase of growth, said Nuvama, who moved forward valuation estimates to September 2026 and raised the price target to Rs 3,786. Maintain ‘BUY’ stance.

Nomura said RIL has a 7 per cent sensitivity to Ebitda if ARPU is 5 per cent higher than currently discounted. It expects the O2C business to benefit from continued strong global oil demand growth of over 1 million barrels per day in 2024 and 2025, tight oil product markets and a likely recovery in petchem margins. RIL’s upstream business has expanded strongly and will continue its strong performance in FY25F, it said.

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