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At what point did the average Singaporean say, “High prices are not the problem when buying a condo?”

Along with people who don’t like money, or a cai png stall with consistent prices, this is one of those things that never happens. It baffles me that an estate agency has to conduct a survey to find that “unaffordable private housing prices” are a barrier to upgrading. Or that “HDB flats remain the preferred housing option for respondents.” Not what I’d call a Sherlock Holmes moment.

But as I read further, I realized it’s part of the routine.

You see, every year there will be a certain number of times that the media will run a story about real estate players trying to exert pressure to relax certain policies. Here’s one from 2014, here’s one from 2018, here’s one from 2023, and I think I just read the one from 2024.

Anyway, this time it is about adjusting ABSD for upgraders. If you buy your new home first, you pay ABSD upfront – then you can claim ABSD refund if you sell your previous home within six months. However, this does not apply to Executive Condominiums (ECs): for ECs, you can buy first without paying ABSD (since it is a HDB home, you have to sell your other HDB home within six months by default).

But do we really want to change ABSD, even if it’s just to help upgraders?

Even using the ABSD as a speed bump can help slow the voracious demand. Without the ABSD, show flats can be more crowded, with more people putting down cheques before the early bird discounts end. ABSD waivers also have an indirect impact on the resale prices of flats: if someone has to sell their flat within six months or risk losing the ABSD, they are more likely to set a realistic price. It is very different from a situation where they can buy a new flat first and still take the time to shop around for the highest possible Cash Over Valuation (COV) for their apartment until the new home is ready.

There is also the fact that if buying first is not an option, fewer people will take the plunge. Renting temporary housing, finding temporary storage, etc. are all necessary if you are selling your flat before buying an apartment. It is, quite frankly, a thorn in the side. So sometimes the ABSD requirement will cause some people to wait to upgrade together.

And the reality is that the fewer homeowners who rush to remodel their homes, the less pressure there is for prices to rise.

You know who won’t have a problem upgrading?

Probably someone whose apartment was chosen for SERS. So far, one of the smartest homeowners we’ve met at Stacked has benefited from SERS at Tanglin Halt. His replacement apartment was completed in 2021 in Dawson, close to SkyOasis @ Dawson, which recently saw a record-breaking sale of a $1.73 million apartment (see details here ).

If the seller wanted to upgrade, I hope he’s enjoying his $3 million or so condo now. I think he can afford the move.

This makes me wonder: now that the government has (somewhat) offset the windfall effect of mature estate homes, thanks to the Prime model, will we see a counterpart to SERS? Only around four or five per cent of flats currently benefit from SERS, but for some the effects are outsized.

I am not programmed for fairness myself; to me, someone who profits from SERS is not inherently more unfair than someone who wins 4D. But in my experience, Singaporean homeowners are enormous about what they consider fair/unfair, and further stories about expensive SERS replacement apartments will undoubtedly lead to complaints.

Meanwhile in other real estate news:

• What is it like to buy property abroad? Here is the experience of someone who bought a house in France.
• Pasir Ris: Singapore’s heartland resort town. It’s a great place for families, and check out what life is like at The Esparis.
• Everyone loves a great comeback story, right? Here’s one for apartment complexes that have made a big turnaround in their later years.
• Enough with all this talk about expensive apartments. You could potentially get a 3 bedroom resale apartment for as little as $250,000.

Weekly Sales Overview (July 15 – July 21)

Top 5 most expensive new sales (per project)

PROJECT NAME	PRICE S$	SURFACE AREA (SQUARE FEET)	$PSF	EMPLOYMENT
THE RESERVE RESIDENCES	$4,130,000	1625	$2,541	99 years
PINE HILL	$3,661,000	1464	$2,501	99 years (2022)
GREAT DUNMAN	$3,609,000	1432	$2,521	99 years
LENTOR MANSION	$3,448,000	1507	$2,288	99 years (2023)
TEMBUSU BIG	$3,396,000	1432	$2,372	99 years (2022)

Top 5 cheapest new sales (per project)

PROJECT NAME	PRICE S$	SURFACE AREA (SQUARE FEET)	$PSF	EMPLOYMENT
KASSIA	$883,000	474	$1,864	FH
THE MYST	$1,241,000	517	$2,402	99 years
TEMBUSU BIG	$1,368,000	527	$2,594	99 years (2022)
HILL HAVEN	$1,505,745	721	$2,088	99 years (2023)
LENTORIA	$1,560,000	700	$2,230	99 years (2022)

Top 5 Most Expensive Resale

PROJECT NAME	PRICE S$	SURFACE AREA (SQUARE FEET)	$PSF	EMPLOYMENT
BEVERLY HILL	$9,150,000	3778	$2,422	FH
CUSCADEN RESERVE	$7,201,000	2099	$3,431	99 years (2018)
THE ARCADIA	$5,200,000	3821	$1,361	99 years (1979)
THE EDGE ON CAIRNHILL	$4,920,000	2131	$2,308	FH
BALMORAL 8	$4,200,000	1841	$2,282	FH

Top 5 Cheapest Resale

PROJECT NAME	PRICE S$	SURFACE AREA (SQUARE FEET)	$PSF	EMPLOYMENT
PARC ROSEWOOD	$660,000	517	$1,277	99 years (2011)
CARDIFF HOME	$699,000	420	$1,665	99 years (2011)
#1 SUITES	$710,000	581	$1,221	FH
JOOL SUITES	$715,000	409	$1,748	FH
HIGH PARK RESIDENCES	$730,000	452	$1,615	99 years (2014)

Top 5 Biggest Winners

PROJECT NAME	PRICE S$	SURFACE AREA (SQUARE FEET)	$PSF	GIVES BACK	RETENTION PERIOD
BEVERLY HILL	$9,150,000	3778	$2,422	$5,470,000	28 years
THE DAIRY FARM	$3,400,000	2207	$1,541	$2,220,000	15 years
THE ARCADIA	$5,200,000	3821	$1,361	$2,000,000	8 years
DUNMANPLACE	$2,750,000	1442	$1,907	$1,941,038	26 years
GOLDENHILL PARK CONDOMINIUM	$2,880,000	1335	$2,158	$1,914,300	22 years old

Top 5 Biggest Losers

PROJECT NAME	PRICE S$	SURFACE AREA (SQUARE FEET)	$PSF	GIVES BACK	RETENTION PERIOD
KINGSFORD WATER BAY	$1,110,000	850	$1,305	-$38,000	6 years
#1 SUITES	$710,000	581	$1,221	$25,777	10 years
SUN @ SINARAN	$1,088,000	581	$1,872	$38,000	13 years
JOOL SUITES	$715,000	409	$1,748	$45,079	13 years
VACANZA @ EAST	$735,000	484	$1,517	$65,000	7 years

Transaction overview

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