ROCHESTER — While major construction waves have transformed downtown Rochester in recent years, none compares to the tsunami from the Mayo Clinic’s upcoming $5 billion “Bold. Forward. Unbound. in Rochester” project.

Starting in August, Mayo Clinic will begin redeveloping 47 acres of downtown, demolishing large buildings and constructing five new buildings, including one labeled the “Hospital of the Future.”

The massive project, described as the largest development in Minnesota history, is scheduled for completion in 2030.

“To borrow a quote from Ross Perot, there’s going to be a giant sucking sound of work in Rochester … workers, materials and all that stuff,” said Rochester Area Builders Association Executive Director Patrick Sexton. “I think there’s just going to be a tremendous amount of positive swirling around southeast Minnesota. … The ripple effects are going to be enormous.”

If the $1 billion U.S. Bank Stadium project in Minneapolis sent ripples through the state, Unbound is a boulder about to splash into a pond. All of Rochester and the region will be in the “splash zone.”

However, local construction professionals, tradespeople and all businesses related to the building industry have a front-row seat. While the Unbound construction is being managed by Providence, Rhode Island-based Gilbane Building Co., Mayo Clinic has committed to working with area companies as subcontractors.

“Mayo Clinic works closely and frequently with construction industry representatives and members of the local construction community to identify strategic, local solutions to future labor and contractor needs,” wrote Mayo Clinic Communications Manager Kristy Jacobson. “Through these valuable relationships, we expect a significant portion of those needs can be met locally, and we look forward to the opportunity to continue supporting our region’s workforce and industry.”

There are many estimates as to how many skilled workers will be needed to work on this project, with some guessing that 2,000 workers will be needed in total. Others say that 1,800 ironworkers alone will be needed. Of course, there are other projects in the pipeline that would be significant to Rochester in their own right.

Mayo Clinic estimates that labor demand for construction of “Bold. Forward. Unbound. in Rochester” will likely peak in late 2027 or early 2028.

“As we prepare for this demand, Mayo Clinic will continue to work closely with local trade groups and businesses to ensure a strategic approach to finding the skilled workforce that will bring Mayo Clinic’s vision for its downtown campus to life,” Jacobson wrote.

The only historical comparison to the likely influx of new workers to the area was when IBM planned to build its Rochester facility in 1956. IBM estimated it would hire 1,000 workers in 1957 and another 1,000 in 1958. During that time, that translated into a need to build 1,200 homes.

The bottom line is that local builders, like Rochester’s family-owned Benike Construction, have plenty of work ahead of them in the Unbound years ahead. Benike President Mike Benike said his company plans to use the strategy that has worked for them for 87 years.

“The advice, for generations, has been to prioritize our existing customers,” Benike said. “Part of our strategic plan is to communicate to the entire team that we are not interested in being the largest general contractor, but we do intend to be the best.”

He says the best thing his company can do right now, in an industry that is always looking ahead and planning for the next job, is to create an attractive work environment to retain and attract employees.

“The dynamics around competition for labor … for talent … for people have always been tough. With Unbound on the horizon, that’s going to increase,” Benike said.

Custom Alarm, a 56-year-old Rochester-based company, is also closely monitoring the situation and trying to anticipate Unbound’s impact on the local hardware market.

“From our standpoint in terms of our work with Mayo Clinic, we’re just looking at what that looks like from a potential workforce standpoint. We’ve already grown quite a bit in the last few years post-COVID. … We’ll add people and technology as needed,” said CEO Melissa Brinkman.

In 1998, the company had 48 employees. By 2022, that number had grown to 70. Custom Alarm currently employs 75 people.

In terms of immediate Unbound work, Brinkman expects much of that impact to happen sooner rather than later in the six-year construction timeline. She describes Custom Alarm’s role with alarm and video systems as providing “parts and smarts” in collaboration with electricians.

The construction of more homes, apartment complexes, and businesses will also bring more work to Custom Alarm. By having its employees undergo certification training during the slow days of the pandemic, Custom Alarm is better equipped for growth. It takes about two years for an employee to become fully certified in fire alarm work.

Brinkman also built a 5,000-square-foot warehouse expansion to Custom Alarm’s 15,000-square-foot headquarters in 2022, positioning the company to store more customer technology and installation equipment.

While local businesses are optimistic that they are preparing for economic growth, some critics expect the next six years to be difficult as Unbound creates more labor problems, higher construction costs and longer traffic jams.

While he acknowledges there will be significant challenges, particularly with competition for workers and the closure of the Second Street development, Sexton dismisses critical comments about Unbound.

“Who wouldn’t want $5 billion, hopefully turning into $10 billion, just in their community? I don’t want to be Duluth. I’d rather have these ‘challenges’ than their challenges,” he said.

Sexton pointed out that Unbound is not just an economic boost for Rochester and the state. He believes the benefits of this project are much more than just financial.

“A lot of people think about the positives of our bars and restaurants being full and us selling more homes, but I also think about what this does for humanity,” he said. “We have three and a half million visitors a year. What if that turns into seven million visitors a year? … That’s three and a half million more people who have hope. And I think that’s not something to mess with.”